In many ways the arrival at the first Sunday of September in 2011 is somewhat of a relief in that it will bring the curtain down on one of the most disappointing championship campaigns in recent history.

Perhaps the recession and the absence of supporters has contributed to this, perhaps it was the sinking reality that the presence of Tipperary and Kilkenny on Sunday was inevitable, but nobody can deny that very few games in 2011 will be remembered as epics. The provincial finals were most disappointing with the romance of Dublin winning the league final evaporating when Kilkenny met them the second time around. The less said about the Munster final the better. And then there’s the lack of consistency. To be fair, Dublin brought that to the table against all teams except Kilkenny but the other counties operated in a Jeykll and Hyde type manner.

It’s all about Sunday now, and there isn’t much either Tipperary or Kilkenny can learn about one another, both know how to win All Irelands so therefore there won’t be any anxiety of Waterford 2008 proportions. The lazy perception is that Kilkenny are on the slide, and Tipperary are on the up meaning that the McCarthy Cup will be returning to Thurles on Monday night. Where either team stands in its stage of development, or what they have left in the tank going forward is irrelevant at this stage. What matters at this stage is that Kilkenny are in the same boat as Tipperary, one match away from winning an All Ireland title.

The key difference between Kilkenny 2011 and Kilkenny 2010 is that Brian Hogan is at centre back. Many believe that Noel Hickeys exposure in last years final stemmed from a lack of protection forced by the absence of Hogan, and the lack of mobility from his injury hampered replacement John Tennyson. Hogan might not be a flash harry, but he is the most underrated No.6 in the game of hurling where simplicity is concerned. Kilkenny know that the concession of goals cost them last years All Ireland final, and Objective No.1 this year will be to prevent Lar Corbett from getting a hat trick. The irony of it all is that Lar only touched the ball seven times in during the course of last years final, but such is the player he has become, that all he needs is three touches of the ball on Sunday to win the game for them.

Much has been made of the movement in the Tipperary attack, and what Kilkenny might do to counteract it. Dublin operated a sweeper system and choked the fluidity of the Tipperary attack, whereas it has been noted that Kilkenny packed the defence late in the game against Waterford. There is an expectation that Kilkenny will play Ulster football in this one, and become the Donegal of the hurling championship. Perhaps its naivety on my part, but it would be astonishing if a Kilkenny team that clocked up 3-30 just three years ago in an All Ireland final, 2-22 two years ago, and 1-18 last year feel the need to become so negative. The Tipperary forwards will attempt to do what they have been doing these last two years, make dummy runs to create the space for others, move into space to receive favourable deliveries, and support one another in terms of giving and receiving scoring passes. They will view this as the way to maximise their scoring potential. If all this speculation about Kilkenny going ultra-defensive is in fact more than idle speculation, then they will be playing to Tipperary’s strengths rather than to their own. The Dublin game plan against Tipperary was right for Dublin, because Dublin are coming, and they needed to ensure Tipperary didn’t open up a huge lead. Those tactics are fine for Dublin to contain team that is superior, but are not necessarily the best to beat a team who are of Kilkenny’s equal.

The much vaunted sweeper system that made Dublin competitive against Tipperary has been the topic of much discussion. From a Limerick perspective, it was tried on a number of occasions with varying effects. In the 2005 Munster Minor Semi Final at Kilmallock, Gavin O’Mahoney was for a period deployed as a sweeper behind the half back line. Limerick had a decent lead and the game degenerated into a game of ping-pong for much of the second half, as he cleared to the spare man on the opposite side who returned the ball to him. The key thing was that Limerick had the lead, and while the ping-pong didn’t impress the supporters, it also meant that the clock was running down. In the third game of the 2007 trilogy with Tipperary, Kevin Tobin was deployed as a sweeper from the very beginning, with licence to attack. The purpose of it was to weather the anticipated early Tipperary storm. Limerick actually hit the ground running themselves that day, opening up a lead of 0-6 to 0-1, and Tobin prevented a certain goal with a timely hook. The time came when Limerick needed to revert to man-to-man and they closed out the game in extra time. In 2009 though, against a different Tipperary attack, the sweeper system didn’t work, and the Tipperary full back line gobbled the ball in three to two situations against Paudie Mac and Andrew O’Shaughnessy. Therein lies the problem with such systems, its fine if the spare man on one team is hitting to the spare man on the other, but what happens if the Tipperary spare man is using the ball well? My personal opinion is that Padraig Maher was allowed too much freedom on uncontested ball by Dublin the last day, and that proved to be a stumbling block.

The one thing Kilkenny have that Dublin don’t have, is a proven goal scoring threat. In this regard, Colin Fennelly’s fitness is crucial to them, as he brings something different. He is a pacy direct runner and has a real go when he gets possession, and the Tipperary backs don’t like to be run at. Eoin Larkin, Richie Hogan, Henry Shefflin, Richie Power etc. all know how to score goals. Eddie Brennan is a spent force as a 70 minute player, but that wont stop him banging them in during shorter spells on the field. Aidan Fogarty hasn’t gone away either despite his lack of game time. Against Waterford the last day, Kilkenny surprised me by shooting from distance. This Kilkenny outfit had always prided themselves in their half backs and midfield players feeding their forwards rather than hitting silly long range wides, but against Waterford the outfield wides tally mounted up. It’s an area of concern, because long range wides sap the strength from a team which is ridiculous considering the forwards they have.

In short Kilkenny have the forwards who can win their own ball, where as some of the Tipperary forwards need the easy ball played to them. Both are equally effective at clocking up the scores when they play at their best, but Tipperary need to play a very high paced low impact game to be most effective, whereas the Kilkenny forwards don’t mind being drawn into a battle. It’s easier to slow a game down, than to prevent a battle from taking place, and Kilkenny are around the block in this regard. In 2006, Kilkenny showed how to counteract, and put the final nail in the coffin of the Cork mid 2000s style of hurling. Dublin have shown that the Tipperary movement is not above being stifled.

Injuries could yet play a part, but this All-Ireland final is far from over.

Verdict: Kilkenny