Emmet Moloney writes for the 'The Irish Farmers Journal' and is a former sports columnist with 'The Kerryman'.

It’s time for the annual “Munster are finished” column. Emmet Moloney thinks he’s right this time though...

Sporting obituaries are much easier to write than actual obituaries. No-one dies in a sporting obituary. A great player or team merely heads off into the sunset with happy memories and the solace of a pundit’s chair or newspaper column. It will be different with Munster.

Sure, the Six Nations will arrive and enthrall us, Leinster will rattle the Heineken Cup and there may even be a Magners League final in Thomond in May to send us into the GAA season with happy thoughts, but there will be no quarter-final of the Heineken Cup this year and no more miracles.

There, I’ve written it. No more miracles. I’ve done my bit. I’ve joined the growing chorus of people who are writing this Munster team off ahead of their trip to France. The wise heads say this is it; defeat will be their lot in Toulon. With defeat will come almost certain elimination from the knockout stages, something that hasn’t happened Munster fans since, well, a long time ago. (Actually it’s only about 10 years, but that’s as long as this European Cup has captured our imagination.)

The last eight without Munster will take a certain gloss off the competition. For Munster fans, it will mean a saving of a few euro but that is scant consolation because they’d travel to the ends of Europe, and have done, to support this team. I know five strong followers who will start their journey on Thursday in Shannon Airport, visit two or three airports off the beaten track (thanks to Ryanair) and land into their seats in Toulon about an hour before kick-off on Sunday. And all for about €150 a man. They won’t be alone in witnessing the end of the dream; they’ll have thousands for company.

It’s a strange thing to discard Munster’s chances as they sit on top of the Marners League and second in their Heineken Cup group, but the truth has been staring us in the face for some time now. Before Christmas, a very mediocre Ospreys side beat Munster in Wales, in a game that the Munster teams of 2000-2009 won have won handily. They’ve lost both of their away games this term. Munster are simply not Munster anymore. The competition will be the less for that.

Of course, they will fight to the bitter end. They may even scrape an unlikely bonus point from Sunday’s loss. With an out-of-contention London Irish due in Thomond for the last round, who knows, maybe a five-pointer could scrape Munster into the quarters as a runner-up.

It’s all moot, however, as Munster’s problems run deeper. Recruitment has been a problem, form has been a hindrance, while injury and suspension haven’t helped. Just who is playing out of their skins for the Men in Red right now? Their best performances have come from the second string team that hammered Ulster and beat the second best team Australia could muster. This should form the bulk of the team to play on Sunday and this should form the future core of the Munster team, but that transition isn’t being pursued.

Paul Warwick appears to be on his way out, Dougie Howlett isn’t getting any younger and most of the first-choice pack are over 30. So, too, is the immovable Ronan O’Gara. When you have a team this old in playing terms, one that still gets away with it, there comes a day when all the deficiencies are shown up for what they are. I fear for Sunday.

Paul O’Connell will feature at some stage but presence alone against such a good side isn’t enough. He has played less than an hour of rugby over the past nine months. That’s not enough for a cauldron like this. It appears Ireland will get the benefit of his freshness and Munster the liability of his absence.

Ronan O’Gara will start at number 10, despite the nagging belief that Munster are more potent these days with Paul Warwick there. With O’Gara at 10, Tomás O’Leary becomes more necessary at nine. The game plan will revolve around a pack that has struggled in recent weeks. The front row in particular hasn’t inspired and the back row no longer carries the threat of old. Toulon are a serious side at home and, with Johnny Wilkinson pulling the strings at outhalf, they can inflict a Munster-type game on their opponents. It doesn’t bode well.

Okay, that’s the glass half empty. The up side is the usual one with Munster. By writing them off we are firing them up. The performance we don’t expect could very well arrive and bite Toulon in the backside. Munster have form on this front. But can it really keep happening? With Munster, the heart usually over rules the head. Not this time.

Leinster will beat Saracens in the RDS on Saturday and in doing so will seal their group and probably earn a home quarter-final. They are the team to beat in Ireland – and possibly Europe – right now. Their squad has a very healthy look to it and, most importantly, their age profile is perfectly balanced. In most positions, they have a veteran keeping a young tyro out or vice versa. Contast that with Munster.

Leinster’s dilemma at full-back when everyone is fit, for example, would have Tony McGahon’s mouth watering. Nacewa, Kearney or Luke Fitzgerald? (The obvious solution for Irish rugby would be to shift Fitzgerald to Munster in 2011/2012 to give him game time there, but that is as unlikely as it is logical.)

Leinster are the team right now and thank God for that; Irish rugby needs at least one province challenging at the top end and they look equipped to do that until Munster get back up there. Our friends in the north could also spring a surprise this January because if Ulster can beat Bairritz in Ravenhill at the weekend, they will be in the driving seat for a quarter-final spot.

Ulster’s improvement will only help the national game, but their recent reliance on recruiting southern hemisphere players isn’t doing Declan Kidney any favours in the short term. No matter, they have a stadium to fill and interest to renew in the game up there. This short-term thinking on the field will pay long-term dividends off it.

By Sunday night, we could be looking at two Irish provinces still in Heineken Cup quarter-final contention, but not the two we thought at the beginning of the competition. Cue the sporting obituaries.



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