Emmet Moloney writes for the 'The Irish Farmers Journal' and is a former sports columnist with 'The Kerryman'.

Sitting down to contemplate Sunday’s All-Ireland football final leaves Emmet Moloney with only one conclusion: Cork will win....

You’d have to fancy Cork to win on Sunday. They are league champions, they are going into their third final in four years and – perhaps most importantly of all – they haven’t played well yet this summer. Has any team ever arrived at a final with such a cloud over their form? Another reason for tipping them is they’re from Cork. We can’t forget that. Winning All-Irelands is in the Rebel genes.

We could do with a final to match the hurling showpiece, but that might be hoping for too much. We could do with a big football match devoid of any real controversy, but, such are the nature of the rules, that is unlikely. We could do with a newish name on the cup and we are going to get that. Down’s last win was in 1994; Cork’s was even further back, in 1990.
We will be hearing all about how Cork lost two finals to Meath in ’87 and ’88 before the Dubs took care of the Royals in 1989, allowing Cork to beat Mayo by three points and claim their fifth All-Ireland. Having the All-Ireland monkey off their back, they won their sixth title a year later, beating Meath the hard way, with 14 men.

You’ll see interviews from greats of that era and on Up for the Match and it will be mentioned. Much will be made of the fact that Cork lost two finals before winning the third. The players will brush that off until after the match. Then we will hear how they swore to themselves that they wouldn’t be the first Cork team to lose three All-Ireland finals.
Of course, Down have a bit of history to live up to as well. They have only ever qualified for five finals: 1960, ’61, ’68, ’91 and ’94. They’ve won them all. (This doesn’t make them unique, however, as Donegal and Limerick are also unbeaten at the final hurdle.)
Should Down win on Sunday, they will join Cork on six titles, a remarkable statistic when you consider Cork’s footballing tradition.

The reasons for fancying Cork go beyond the evidence we have seen so far this year on the field, because football logic would point to Down. They have raised their game on two epic visits to Croke Park in beating the two most impressive teams in the competition up until then: Kerry and Kildare.

Cork shouldn’t really be here – a major plus in their favour. Limerick should have finished them off and the Dubs shot themselves in the foot when staring at a victory. Teams that get a second or third chance tend to use it. Deep down, Cork must think this has to be their year.

There is a GAA tradition that suggests it is better for a team to fall into a final than to stride into one. Cork are following this to the letter. They haven’t hit form since June, yet find themselves 70 minutes away from the Grail. There has to be a big performance in them. Surely it’ll come on Sunday.

Beating Down starts with holding Benny Coulter and Marty Clarke. These two make Down tick on the scoreboard. Both are hard to manage. Physically, Clarke is next to impossible to mark legally. His size and skill means he will get on the ball quite a bit. It’s what happens next that could decide the match.

Benny Coulter is Down’s Peter Canavan and Gooch all rolled into one. He deserves a stage like Croke Park in late September because Benny is deadly. Football lacks forwards with Benny’s eye for goal. When Clarke gets the ball, the Cork backs had better get Benny because he is a master at wriggling free near goal. Down will need a green flag or two to win and, like Lar Corbett for Tipp, he is Down’s goal merchant. Hold him and you hold them.
So who will do the holding? Eoin Cadogan has been mentioned in dispatches if Graham Canty isn’t fit to take his place. Cadogan is worth his place regardless of Canty’s fitness but Canty is a vital member of the Cork set-up and, like Henry Shefflin, he is deemed important enough to run a risk with. Conor Counihan can’t hesitate when hard decisions have to be made on Sunday and if Clarke or Coulter start well, we’ll see what Counihan is made of.
To win on Sunday will require about 18 points. On paper, Cork look infinitely capable of getting that. Paul Kerrigan is a classy forward who can score and create, Donncha O’Connor and Daniel Goulding can be clinical, while Pat Kelly, Pearse O’Neill and full-forward Ciaran Sheehan have plenty to offer. Defenders Miskella and O’Leary raid forward, as does Canty. Alan O’Connor also makes bursts from midfield. Of course, Derek Kavanagh and Nicholas Murphy could make their presence felt too.

So, Cork do have the talent at their disposal. Getting them to play with the freedom and belief necessary to win an All-Ireland has eluded two managers for some time now. We’ve all been waiting for them to cut loose.

A strong case can be made for Down as well. They are young in all the right places. The minor wins of 1999 and 2005 have started the conveyor belt moving again and manager James McCartan is only in his rookie year.

A fully fit Ambrose Rogers would make a huge difference, but aside from the twin threat of Clarke and Coulter, they have a serious midfield dynamo in Kalum King. At full-back Dan Gordon looks the part, while tenacity is the byword of their half-backs and forwards. But, for all of them, this is their first senior final. That brings its own issues. Forget the chip on Cork’s shoulder, there is serious pressure on any Ulster team reaching an All-Ireland senior final. Down are young enough to ignore it, or young enough to be a bit overwhelmed by it. Take your pick.

Here’s hoping for a decent final. We’ve had precious few in recent years and most of that has been Cork’s fault. They have to set the record straight. So it has to be Cork. No Kerry to bully them, no real form in reaching the final, no way they can lose three finals in four years. They have been favourites all year long for a reason.

Cork will win.

To catch Emmet's latest column, get 'The Irish Farmers' Journal' every Thursday...