Emmet Moloney writes for the 'The Irish Farmers Journal' and is a former sports columnist with 'The Kerryman'.

Last-round matches in the Heineken Cup make for special weekends and usually Munster lead the way. This weekend is no different. Emmet Moloney looks forward to the action...

Munster face a somewhat tricky assignment this Friday night in the Heineken Cup, when they face Northampton. They are in the luxurious position of theoretically being able to lose and still go through to the last eight. The only defeat Munster have ever shipped at home in the European Cup was to Leicester, when the same kind of scenario presented itself. Already assured qualification, they went off the boil. Munster don’t have enough going against them on Friday night!

Let’s first run through the situation as regards home quarter-finals and bonus points and all that. At this time of the year, everyone who follows rugby gets a little bit confused. And usually with good cause. If Munster win in Thomond Park, then their margin of victory does not matter, nor their need for four tries and a bonus point. A win for them and they are guaranteed a home quarter-final.

Should Munster actually lose the game to the Saints, but finish within seven points of them, they would still qualify as one of the two best runners-up, but would not have a home quarter-final.

If the unthinkable happens and Munster are beaten by more than seven points (surely this can’t happen), then they would be at the mercy of Leicester, the Ospreys and ... Leinster.
If Leinster deprive London Irish of a bonus-point win, then it is all over and Munster go through. But – and here’s an interesting scenario – should Munster lose on Friday night, then Leinster and London Irish could both go through at Munster’s expense. That would require Irish scoring four tries while winning and Leinster staying within seven points to grab a bonus-point loss.

Leinster’s future could also be determined by their great rivals in Red because if Munster win on Friday night, then Leinster are guaranteed a spot as one of the best runners-up, regardless of what happens in their match on Saturday.
If Leinster want to make it clearer and ensure a home quarter-final, then they can do that by winning on Saturday. A bonus-point loss leaves them with an outside chance of a home quarter-final as their try difference is an impressive plus 13 going into the last round of game.

Ulster have no chance. They have been brave away from home and strong on their own patch, but in this competition you have to win on your travels and they can’t do that. They play Bath away from home this weekend, having to win with four tries and rely on the hope that Edinburgh can beat Stade Français and deny them a bonus point. Best of luck lads, but no hope.

Okay – that’s everything cleared up!

LIKELY OUTCOME
Here’s the simple and most likely outcome: on Friday night, Munster will beat Northampton. This will ensure both Munster and Leinster go through. Not needing the bonus point, it could be a pragmatic and workmanlike win. A pity, but a strong possibility.

I say a pity because Munster’s style of rugby in their last two wins over Perpignan and Treviso has been a breath of fresh air. Running, attacking and direct rugby with flair and marvellous skill. They have looked a different team from the one that struggled in October, November and early December.

I’m sure the team and its management will feel that way, too. They will want to build on the last two performances and continue with the same brand of rugby. But then pragmatism will set in. The win must be achieved and in Thomond a dogged display will do. There is a score to be settled from their first meeting and the home tie in the last eight to be assured, so winning rugby will take precedence.

TRIES REQUIRED
The same rules will apply in Twickenham. London Irish are far more dangerous than Northampton because they need the four tries. That means they will be throwing the kitchen sink at the defending champions right from the opening kick-off. The Saints can play it cagey in Limerick hoping to sneak the win, but the Irish have to go for Leinster’s throats.

As a team with probably the best back division in the competition, you would think that this type of game would suit Leinster. You’d be wrong. Forwards win matches and championships. The boys in blue have had the most exciting backs for years now, only last year did Rocky Elsom and his buddies in the pack carry them over the line. That’s where Leinster won the Heineken Cup, going tryless in three of their last four games on the way to lifting the trophy. It took them a while to learn but they learnt well – winning rugby doesn’t have to be attractive, stylish and beautiful to watch. It can be, but it doesn’t have to be!

This is the mentality Leo Cullen, Michael Cheika and Brian O’Driscoll will be preaching. Kill the momentum of the Exiles early. That means a crucial score, an early try and a territory-based game. Nothing too flash to begin with on Saturday, Jonny! (This is something I have noticed watching Sexton’s last five starts for Ireland and Leinster. He has done something adventurous his first time on the ball. Every time. A dummy usually before a kick to buy some time or he has broken himself. Opposition teams study videos, he needs to be careful there.)

Friday 9 and Saturday 10 October seem like a long way behind now. That weekend saw Leinster, cock-a-hoop after destroying Munster the week before, go down at home in the first round of the Heineken Cup to London Irish. The following day, Munster lost away to Northampton.

Here we are, five rounds later, and all is right with the world. This weekend has to be taken care of before anyone will talk out loud about what really is ahead of us. Munster versus Leinster in a quarter-final or in a semi-final. It is on the cards again. A last blow-out in Croke Park!

A semi-final is the strongest possibility as both should win this weekend. After our two giants of European rugby possibly, Biarritz and Toulouse stand in the way of an All-Ireland final in Paris.

Wouldn’t that be something? Leinster and Munster in a Heineken Cup final in Stade de France. An official end to the recession!
To catch Emmet's latest column, get 'The Irish Farmers' Journal' every Thursday...