Emmet Moloney writes for the 'The Irish Farmers Journal' and is a former sports columnist with 'The Kerryman'.
What is wrong with Munster? Are Leinster treading water? Is there a revival underway in Ulster? Emmet Moloney wonders what the Irish team will look like in two weeks when Australia come to Croker...

Munster have been frightening their supporters these last few weeks. There is very little optimism about the province’s prospects at the moment and words like “old”, “trouble”, “struggling” and “poor” are all being bandied about. One or two are even saying they’re “gone”. The fools. Have Munster not taught us anything? This squad will bounce back when it needs to.

A little history here. This time last year the Munster wave was rolling. The team was playing inspired rugby; they were everyone’s favourite for the Heineken Cup, Magners League and were just about to send their second string out against the All Blacks. And they could have beaten them too.

Munster were on a high but they couldn’t keep it going. They couldn’t see out the season and by the time Leinster came charging out of the long grass, they had very little left. The season ended with a whimper as the main men looked to the Lions tour. Twelve months later and Munster are stuttering. Their form is patchy and some (only some) key players are not looking the part. But this season is different. Redemption is the goal, not winning every game before Christmas. Munster are pacing themselves and they have good reason.

This year’s Magners League is different. The team at the top at the end of the season will not be taking home the cup straight away. Instead, the top four sides qualify for play-offs and there will be two semi-finals and a final. So Munster can make the top four and take it from there. No need to go full steam ahead.

In the Heineken Cup, the group stage doesn’t look as difficult as previous years. The first game has been lost away from home and a bonus point gained, while depriving Northampton of a five-point victory. The others teams in the group are in trouble while Munster can still top the table by winning their remaining home matches and away in Italy. The French side Perpignan beat the English at home and that plays into Munster hands. They will come out of the group.

What rugby fans forget is that Munster have a wonderful habit of losing their first game and going very far in the competition. Is it intentional that Munster are losing matches and looking bad while doing it? Of course not but this is a marathon, not a sprint. The Lions contingent have to be carefully monitored regarding fitness and strength. Munster will get them right and a few weeks with Declan Kidney’s set-up with help.

Will it help Ronan O’Gara? He seems to be the one that fans are most worried about. He usually thrives in such a spotlight but this is a little bit different. He has a live opponent in Johnny Sexton threatening his Irish place and right now he deserves it. Whether Kidney feels like throwing young Sexton in at the deep end against the Aussies on Sunday fortnight is a little doubtful. The obvious route would be a cameo against Australia and then a full match against Fiji a week later. Then a review before the Springboks come for the grudge match. Kidney has O’Gara’s fragile psyche in his hands. The hunch is he will restore it as he has done so many times before. O’Gara is probably still ahead of Sexton in the coach’s eyes.

So are Leinster right now. In Shane Horgan they have a fine example of a player going the right way about regaining his place in the squad. Heaslip, Kearney, Fitzgerald and O’Driscoll will all start. After that Leinster are also struggling slightly. Their pack, like Munster’s, is lacking dynamism. Leinster’s Heineken Cup campaign is far from dead, but of the Irish three, they have the biggest task ahead of them. They just might squeeze through.

The age profile of Ireland’s forwards is a concern. Ulster hopefully can add some new blood here because our front and back rows are a little shy. The failure of Tony Buckley to turn onto the player we all hoped for has opened the door for a few others. Like it or not, we have to replace John Hayes someday very soon. Leinster’s Cian Healy has eight Ireland A caps and it may be time for him to try the big time.

It might be a little soon for Kevin McLaughlin, as our back row options are not that bad. Heaslip, Wallace, Stephen Ferris and Alan Quinlan are the front-runners.
Ulster are on a mini-high at the moment. We never heard just what happened with Matt Williams during the summer but the home-grown nature of the new management set-up is working so far. The Red Hand have to have someone on the team and they have quite a few contenders besides Stephen Ferris. Tommy Bowe will start but he is an Osprey now. Elsewhere, they have high hopes for Ian Humphreys at outhalf (a dark horse), Paddy Wallace, Tom Court (another potential front-row candidate) and Andrew Trimble.
Kidney has all this to contend with. This weekend he starts to gather the squad back together from their high of last season. The coach is an acknowledged if understated genius at preparing teams. But this is virgin territory for all of us. Ireland are Grand Slam champions and have reached a high of fourth in the world rankings.

We have to beat at least one of the big two this autumn. Kidney has his eyes on a World Cup, Six Nations and these games, while immediate, are not an absolute priority.
So he will limit his experimentation. Sexton will see game time, but barring a start against Fiji, that might be it. Will we see a breakthrough player? Maybe but unlikely.
The team for Australia will have plenty of familiar names: Kearney, Bowe, O’Driscoll, Fitzgerald, Horgan, O’Gara and O’Leary almost pick themselves. Backs are not our problem.
John Hayes won’t make it through lack of game time and Shane Jennings is similarly fixed. There are places up for grabs but O’Connell, O’Callaghan, Wallace and Heaslip are certainties. Cian Healy has a chance; Marcus Horan is an injury worry; Tony Buckley is not an alternative and we are struggling for a hooker. Our front row is where the Aussies and Springboks will sense a weakness. No doubt Kidney does as well.

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